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What are the Odds of Winning the Football Pools?

Is it pure fancy or madness to think you can win the football pools on a regular basis? It can be done though, if you have a system, but many people do not believe it.

How's that?

Look at the probability - basic odds in other words. With 49 matches (games) on a British coupon, we aim to identify a winning line of 8 score draws to win the big prize – the British treble chance. A 1st Dividend can be worth £3m, though with a system we aim to win a lot less but regularly. By the way, a score draw is a result in which both teams end up with the same number of goals, not zero). If we stake one line only (not practical as they are 10 a penny) then the odds of hitting the correct 8 matches from 49 are about 450 million to 1. With the National Lottery the odds are 14 million to 1 for a six number combination, by comparison.

If ‘go large' and stake 45,000 lines in an entry, then that cuts the probability (for purely random picking), to about 10,000 to 1. That's looking much much better.

There are some complications. There will not always be 8 score draw results on a given coupon. Sometimes there may be as many as 15. During the early part of the 2009-2010 season, the number of drawn matches (both score-draw and no-score draw) varied between 12% (1 no score and 5 score draws) and 38% (5 no-score and 13 score draws) of the coupon. The maximum number of score draws during that 12 week period was 14.

Let's take a week on which there are 13 score draws as an example. With 13 score draws, there are 1,287 possible combinations of the 8 needed for a 1st Dividend.

This improves our odds considerably – 10,000 to 1 becomes 7.77 to 1 (ok, 8 to 1 to keep it simple). That's with a random picking of our 45,000 lines in our entry.

Now, football teams play to form (not always or consistently), but there is a pattern. Let's say that we can predict draw games with say 60% accuracy within our selections. This means that we are 20% better on the odds (10% edge above 50% random).

So, odds of 8 to 1 now become 6.4 to 1 (or 13/2 if we were horserace betting people). Isn't that a much better prospect?

There are other ways of sharpening the odds in our favour, and a lot more to working a system, but I hope that this article has given you a flavour!

© Phil Marks 2009

About the Author

How to win the football pools - find out from someone who developed a proven system way back in 1985. It is now available to you. More about my winning football pools system at ==> http://www.footballpoolswizard.co.uk, with info on winning football pools plans and football pools perms at http://www.footballpoolswizard.co.uk/articles.html

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